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The Market Monitor: July 2022

Recession

It’s official (kind of): the United States is in a recession. At least if we define a recession as a period of two or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP declined at a 0.9% annualized rate in Q2 after declining at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1. Apparently, what comes up must (at least temporarily) come down. While we know the same will prove true of inflation, price increases continue unabated and are taking a toll on consumers, producers, and savers.  

Inflation continued to accelerate through June, with the CPI up 9.1% year over year. Higher prices are eroding purchasing power and forcing consumers to tighten their belts. In a survey released this month by the National Retail Federation, nearly half of consumers said that because of rising prices on everyday necessities, they were switching to cheaper alternatives. And in his press conference announcing a 75 basis point increase in the Fed Funds Rate in an effort to reign in inflation, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted “growth in consumer spending has slowed significantly.”

On the producer side of the equation, with stock prices down and the macroeconomic outlook increasingly shaky, few companies are seeking to go public. In a sign of the times, hedge fund titan Bill Ackman announced this month that Pershing Square Tontine Holdings, the largest-ever SPAC, would return $4 billion to its shareholders. In a letter announcing the decision, Ackman noted that, with SPAC and IPO markets effectively shut and companies generally able to postpone their listings, there weren’t any targets that fit his investment criteria. Companies that need equity capital in this environment are paying dearly; for example, Swedish “buy now, pay later” lender Klarna announced this month that it raised new money at an 85% lower valuation compared to its prior fundraising round. In the public markets, with corporate profits continuing to grow and cash balances near all-time records, CEOs can afford to wait.  

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Month In Review

Inflation, Inflation Everywhere, and Not an Americano to Drink

After adjusting for inflation, wages and salaries declined 3.5% year over year during the second quarter. With inflation running at its highest level in 41 years and wages not keeping pace, reduced purchasing power is forcing Americans to change their lifestyles in ways large and small. Earlier this month, the WSJ profiled Greenwich, CT resident James Duffy, a 25-year-old residential counselor. Duffy has substituted his store-bought Americanos for coffee brewed at home, and is even debating how many bags of chips he really needs to buy. About a third of employers, including large firms like T. Rowe Price and Exxon Mobile, are responding to the situation by considering or planning midyear raises, according to a survey of more than 300 large employers conducted in May by Pearl Meyer, a compensation advisory firm. “The market has moved,” said Michelle Swanenburg, head of human resources at T. Rowe Price. Hopefully, it will move faster so that Mr. Duffy can resume his Americano purchases and indulge in an extra bag of chips.

Speaking of Drinks, the Post-Pandemic Hangover is Brutal

During the pandemic, there was a heated debate as to whether the rapidly accelerating growth in e-commerce and streaming media would reverse as the world reopened or whether these markets would continue to grow off of a higher post-pandemic base. It increasingly appears that those who bet on the reversal scenario were correct. Companies like Shopify and Roku, who aggressively grew their workforces and overall cost structures based on the assumption that strong sales growth would continue, are reeling as the double whammy of slower sales and higher costs erases profits.  

Tech Company Layoffs Abound

Getting back to Shopify, the market was prepared for the Canadian online storefront and payment services provider’s disappointing results. Shortly before earnings, Shopify announced a 10% reduction in force. In a blog post announcing the layoffs, CEO Tobi Lutke wrote, “what we see now is the [e-commerce] mix reverting to roughly where pre-Covid data would have suggested it should be at this point.” Shopify is certainly not alone in announcing reductions in hiring or layoffs. Companies in other industries with particularly brutal post-pandemic hangovers, like online trading platforms (Robinhood, Coinbase) and at-home fitness products (Peloton), have announced significant layoffs, while even far better-positioned companies like Microsoft, Google, and Apple have reduced hiring plans. Tesla is also planning to lay off 10% of its workforce, though CEO Elon Musk clarified: “Note, this does not apply to anyone actually building cars, battery packs or installing solar.” Not exactly a reassuring message for the remainder of Tesla’s nearly 100,000 worldwide employees!        

Speaking of Musk, the Saga Continues (Shocker!)

We were completely shocked (not!) by Elon Musk’s decision to back out of his acquisition of Twitter. In a (oh, the irony) Twitter post, Musk mocked the company for filing a lawsuit to force him to close the transaction. While Elon *technically* signed a contract obligating him to buy the company, Musk is arguing that the company’s failure to provide data on how many of its subscribers are bots means that he does not, in fact, have to purchase the company. While Twitter *did* disclose as a risk factor in its SEC filings that approximately 5% of its subscribers were bots and that this was only a relatively unreliable estimate, Musk is undeterred. According to Twitter, “Musk refuses to honor his obligations to Twitter and its stockholders because the deal he signed no longer serves his personal interests. Musk apparently believes that he — unlike every other party subject to Delaware contract law — is free to change his mind, trash the company, disrupt its operations, destroy stockholder value, and walk away.” Isn’t the world’s richest man entitled to do such things? Time (and a Delaware judge) will tell!

Lighter Notes 

– Take the Money and Run. A worker at a Chilean cold cuts company who normally received a paycheck of $555 was accidentally paid $183,593. After reporting the overpayment to a manager, the company told him to go to his bank to initiate the return of the money. He promised to go there the next day, which he did, but not to return the money! After three days of calls and WhatsApp messages, the company got a message from the worker’s lawyer offering his resignation. Since then, no one has heard from the worker.

– Pighearted. Surgeons at NYU successfully transplanted genetically-engineered pig hearts into two brain-dead people, moving a step closer to a long-term goal of using pig parts to address the shortage of human organs for transplant.

– The Power of Strong AC. In the sweltering summer heat, industrial-strength air conditioning is luring people back to the office. Eric Busseau, a 28-year-old financial consultant in Chicago, says he now decides whether to go to the office based on how hot and humid the forecast says the day will be. “I live in an apartment from like 1924, and I’ve got window air conditioners,” he says, “but it does not compete with the industrial-strength air-conditioning of my office tower.”

– Water Cooler Zoom? Friendships born at the proverbial water cooler have long influenced workers’ careers and personal lives in profound ways. Today, people are finding it difficult to replicate the water cooler experience over Zoom. Andrew Pauly, 32, who works at the Planetary Society, attended a virtual watch party of “2001: A Space Odyssey” with his teammates. “It looks like the real thing. It tastes like the real thing,” Mr. Pauly said. “But our brains know it’s not the real thing.”

– Bend and Blaze. This Brooklyn yoga studio touts “a higher yoga experience,” and it means that literally. Participants are invited to smoke marijuana during the session.

“People want the community, they want to find their stoner circle, they want to find this connection,” says Bend & Blaze instructor Amanda Hitz. Ms. Hitz notices that students in her cannabis-infused classes seem particularly flexible—and laid back.

Image of the Month

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson Resigned on July 7th Following a Series of Scandals

Boris Johnson Resignation

Image credit: Reuters

Chart Series

Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve, defined as the spread between 10-year Treasury and 2-year Treasury bond yields, inverted in July (meaning shorter-term rates now exceed longer-term rates). An inverted yield curve often occurs prior to recessions. 

US 2-10 Yield Spreads

Semis Still Hard to Come By: According to Susquehanna Financial Group, lead times for semiconductors averaged 27 weeks in June, compared with 27.1 weeks in May. Lead times are approximately twice as long as was typical in the 2017-2020 period.

Semiconductor lead times

Strong Dollar: The U.S. Dollar Index is at its highest level since November 2002, which is pressuring revenues for multinational companies, including many technology companies.

U.S. Dollar Index

Mean Reversion: E-commerce penetration is converging to the pre-COVID trendline.

E-commerce penetration

By the Numbers

Trillions

  • $2.7 trillion: extra savings Americans accumulated over the first two years of the pandemic (WSJ)

Billions

  • $867 billion: dry powder for growth and venture capital funds, +20% year-over-year (Goldman Sachs)
  • $750 billion: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s estimate of costs to rebuild Ukraine (NYT)
  • $280 billion: total subsidies and research funding provided under the Chips and Science Act of 2022 to shore up U.S. competitiveness in advanced technology. Of this amount, $53 billion was allocated to direct financial assistance for the construction and expansion of semiconductor manufacturing facilities (CNBC)
  • $138 billion: U.S. LBO volume so far this year, down nearly 20% compared with the same period in 2021 (Dealogic)
  • $40 billion: annual revenue of E&Y, the world’s third-largest accounting firm, which employs more people than Apple, Exxon and Pfizer combined (NYT)
  • $24 billion: amount media companies are expected to spend on live sports rights in 2024, nearly double what they spent a decade earlier (MoffettNathanson)
  • $14 billion: cost of first phase of Gateway project to dig new train tunnels under the Hudson River (NYT)
  • 1.8 billion: the number of transactions recorded by Zelle in 2021, double pre-pandemic levels (Marketwatch)

Millions

  • 345 million: people worldwide facing food insecurity (World Food Program)
  • 71 million: people pushed into poverty by food inflation (Reuters)
  • $19.3 million: amount spent by Amazon on federal lobbying in 2021, compared with $2.2 million a decade earlier (OpenSecrets)
  • 16.2 million: U.S. college enrollment in spring 2022, down from 17.5 million in spring 2019 and 19.6 million in spring 2011 (National Student Clearinghouse)

Hundreds and Thousands

  • 2008: the last time investors’ allocation to stocks was as low as today was October 2008. Survey also notes expectations for global growth and profits reached an all-time low in July (BAML global fund manager survey)
  • 2006: record home prices and higher mortgage rates in May made it the most expensive month since 2006 to buy a home (WSJ)
  • 394: number of tech start-ups who have let go of employees since the beginning of the year (Layoffs.fyi)

Singles and Doubles

  • 40 years: Heathrow Airport said it has seen the same growth over the past four months as it saw over 40 years (WSJ)
  • 20 years: lowest euro value relative to U.S. Dollar since 2002 (Bloomberg)

Percentages

  • 65%: share of $53 billion global cloud-service spending in Q1 held by Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, up from 52% four years ago (Synergy Research Group)
  • 57%: increase in layoffs in June relative to May, June layoffs up 59% year-over-year (Challenger, Gray & Christmas)
  • 51% of American adults considered a college degree to be “very important” in 2019, down from 70% in 2013. Positive perceptions of college among adults 18 to 29 fell the fastest of any group, to 41% from 74%. (Gallup)
  • 46%: percentage of sticker price college students paid n the 2021-22 academic, the lowest ever (National Association of College and University Business Officers)
  • -15%: year-over-year change in worldwide PC shipments in the June quarter (IDC)
  • -23%: change in investments in U.S. tech start-ups over the past three months, the steepest decline since 2019 (PitchBook)

Conferences

Thought Leadership

September

  • IoT World: September 28-29 (Santa Clara)
  • GHC of Women in Computing: September 20-23 (Orlando)
  • Forbes Global CEO Conference: September 26-27 (Singapore)

October

  • FORTUNE Most Powerful Women: October 10-12 (Laguna Niguel)
  • CB Insights Future of Fintech: October TBD (New York)
  • Mobile World Congress Los Angeles: October TBD (Los Angeles)
  • Programmatic I/O: October 17-18 (New York)
  • TechCrunch Disrupt: October 18-20 (San Francisco)
  • Money 20/20: October 23-26 (Las Vegas)

Investor

August

  • KeyBank Technology Leadership Forum: August 7-9 (Vail)
  • Canaccord Genuity Growth Conference: August 8-11 (Boston)
  • Oppenheimer Technology, Internet & Communications Conference: August 9-10 (Virtual)

September

  • Citi Global Technology Conference: September 7-9 (New York)
  • Evercore TMT Conference: September 8-9 (New York)
  • Goldman Sachs Communacopia Conference: September 12-15 (New York)
  • Piper Tech & Consumer Growth Frontiers Conference: September 13-14 (Nashville)
  • Deutsche Bank Technology Conference: September 13-14 (Las Vegas)

November

  • Credit Suisse TMT Conference: November 28-December 1 (Phoenix)
  • Wells Fargo TMT Summit: November 29-December 1 (Las Vegas)

December

  • Raymond James Technology Investors Conference: December 5-7 (New York)
  • UBS Global TMT Conference: December 6-7 (New York)
Contact us at Info@HayflowerPartners.com or request information.
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The Market Monitor: July 2022 October 29th, 2022denisehayflowerllc
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