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The Market Monitor: April 2022

Down for the Count?

Last month, we asked ourselves whether the market had turned the corner. We wondered if the sharp rally in technology stocks in the second half of March indicated that the market had finished climbing its wall of worry.

This month, with new information from technology company earnings reports in hand, many are asking whether technology stocks are down for the count. April was a great month for technology bears. Netflix, Google, Facebook, Amazon — nearly every FAANG stock reported disappointing earnings, with some far worse than others. Netflix was a standout performer on the downside, distinguishing itself as the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 Index year-to-date. The fears that had been on the top of investors’ minds for months seemed to be validated as each of the FAANGs reported earnings.

Would demand for technology products and services, which surged during pandemic-driven lockdowns, fall off a cliff? Apparently, as Netflix reported a decline in subscribers and forecasted more subscriber losses to come.

Would the Ukraine war directly impact technology companies? Yes, as Alphabet (Google) reported an “outsized impact” on YouTube revenue from the termination of ad sales in Russia and a pullback in European brand advertiser spending after fighting broke out.

And would inflation hurt technology companies directly? Apparently, as higher wages and shipping costs tanked Amazon’s profits.

So, are technology stocks really down for the count? We don’t think so. Not so long ago, the deflationary impact of technology-driven efficiencies was a predominant concern. Automation would cause massive job losses and persistently high unemployment, the thinking went, and governments would need to step in to solve the problem. Today, labor shortages and inflation are top of mind. While macroeconomic forces are nearly impossible to predict (and we don’t try to predict them), we firmly believe in the power of technology to solve humanity’s greatest problems. That is why we are so passionate about our mission to help technology companies cut through the noise and best articulate their stories to investors and other stakeholders.

The Market Monitor is intended for our clients as well as other friends and colleagues. We hope you enjoy it and pass it along to others to subscribe. Happy reading!

Month In Review

All Eyes on Elon

Elon Musk is buying Twitter for $54.20 per share. In his signature style, the world’s richest man once again included the magic “420” number in his bid. This time, though, the mercurial billionaire really did secure funding (including $13 billion of cash proceeds from the sale of Tesla stock). In a stunning reversal, Twitter’s board of directors approved the $44 billion sale of the company to Musk only 10 days after adopting a poison pill designed to prevent it. The sequence of events leading up to the deal announcement, which we expect to be dramatized by one or more streaming services in the near future, was highly unusual and entertaining. After revealing that he had acquired a 9.2% “passive” stake in Twitter on April 4th, Musk and Twitter announced that Elon would be joining Twitter’s Board of Directors. Musk then proceeded to launch a barrage of critical tweets about Twitter (most of which he subsequently deleted), including one in which questioned whether Twitter was “dying.” Less than a week after announcing that Elon would be joining the board, Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal tweeted that, in fact, Musk would not be joining the Board after all. A few days later, Twitter’s board adopted the poison pill which, 10 days later, they withdrew in connection with their announcement that the company would, in fact, be sold to Elon. Trading at a 10% discount to Musk’s offer price, Twitter shares reflect the market’s belief that the deal may not proceed according to plan. While we certainly don’t know how the situation will unfold, we do feel highly confident in one thing — there will be more drama!

Inflation: Front and Center

Inflation is now on everyone’s mind. And for many younger Americans, inflation is a new phenomenon. While Millennials and subsequent generations had come expect rising asset prices (houses, stocks, cryptocurrencies), higher prices for goods and services seem to be catching many by surprise. And, with new claims for unemployment benefits at their lowest levels since 1968, the dreaded wage-price spiral effect appears to be taking hold. According to the WSJ, many technology workers are demanding annual pay increases of 20% or more. In a sign of the times, Starbucks founder Howard Schultz announced that the company would suspend its stock repurchase program as it seeks to fend off unionization efforts and improve its public image.

The Evolving Workplace

There no longer seems to be much of a debate around whether or not pre-pandemic work norms will reassert themselves as the impact of COVID-19 subsides. The workplace will almost certainly look different from how it looked before. The question is, how radical will the changes be? Airbnb made headlines in April by telling its employees that they can work remotely, forever. Previously, the company had told employees to expect to return to work in September of this year. And when the WSJ publishes an article debating whether the optimal workweek consists of 2 or 3 days in the office, the obvious assumption is that 5 days in the office is unthinkable. The shift to working from anywhere presents challenges for companies grappling with how to monitor time and attendance.

Regulatory Spotlight

The SEC threw a new wrench in the SPAC works in April by issuing new proposed rules that would require enhanced disclosures and increase potential liability under the federal securities laws for shell companies (including SPACs), target companies, and investment banks participating in de-SPAC transactions. In the wake of the SEC’s proposed new rules, Citi announced that it would pause new SPAC issuance until there is more more clarity around potential legal risks.

Lighter Notes

– Dress Codes. Companies are struggling to define appropriate dress codes as employees return to the office. We hadn’t thought of combining blazers with hoodies, but maybe we should have!

– Caller ID Gotchas. Another odd pandemic-era phenomenon is causing confusion and embarrassment in the workplace as employers screen the calls of employees whose phones are registered to their parents or other family members. Awkward!

– Baby Giant. Astronomers discovered a gigantic, Jupiter-like alien planet in its early stages of formation. The planet’s unusual development is challenging current theories and is expected to improve our understanding of the universe.

– DALL-E. At the OpenAI artificial intelligence lab, researchers are building technology called DALL-E (a marriage of the lovable WALL-E robot and impressionist painter Salvador Dali) that lets you create digital images simply by describing what you want to see.

Image of the Month

Elon musk twitter

Elon Musk to Acquire Twitter

Chart Series

Soaring Inflation: April’s 8.5% year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index was the fastest since the “Great Inflation” period which ended 40 years ago.

100026_1_19vid-burst-cpi-all-items_wg_720p_Moment

An Ion-popping chart: U.S. venture capital investment in electric vehicle battery companies approached $2 billion in 2021, a nearly 4x year-over-year increase.

US VC investment in EV battery companies

“Toothless:” Bloomberg put it best. The FAANG stocks haven’t packed much of a bite this year, as the group has significantly underperformed the S&P 500 Index year to date.

FAANG Stocks Lead Market Declines

By the Numbers

Trillions

  • $11.4 trillion total revenue of companies that have pledged to become carbon neutral or net zero (Microsoft)
  • $1.7 trillion outstanding federal student loan debt (Education Data Initiative)

Billions

  • $100 billion+ of bonds and loans for clean-energy uses were issued in the first quarter, compared to $95 billion for oil-and-gas firms (WSJ)

Millions

  • $745 million venture capital investment in Miami-area crypto companies, from $6 million in 2020 (PitchBook)
  • $300 million spent by Warner Brothers Discovery on CNN+ (Adweek)
  • 2.4 million shortfall of immigrants of working age in the U.S., compared with pre-2017 immigration trends. (WSJ)

Hundreds and Thousands

  • $375,300 median existing-home price in March (+15% y/y) (NAR)

Single and Double-Digits

  • 87 U.S. businesses filed for bankruptcy in Q1-22, the lowest in 13 years (S&P Global Market Intelligence)
  • 5 weeks: amount of time CNN+ was on the air before shutting down on April 30

Percentages

  • 40% of J.P. Morgan’s roughly 271,000 employees may move to a hybrid working model, and an additional 10% could end up working from home full-time
  • 13% NASDAQ Composite Index decline in April 2022, worst month since October 2008

Conferences

Thought Leadership

May

  • Milken Institute Global Conference: May 1-4 (Beverly Hills)
  • AI and Big Data Expo: May 11-12 (Santa Clara)

June

  • The Economist’s Sustainability Week: June 6-9 (Washington, D.C.)
  • Apple WWDC: June TBC (Virtual)
  • Collision: June 20-23 (Toronto)
  • RSA Conference: June 6-9 (San Francisco)
  • Women in Tech Conference: June 7-10 (Virtual)
  • Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity: June 20-24 (Cannes)

July

  • FORTUNE Brainstorm Tech: July 11-13 (Aspen)

September

  • IoT World: September 28-29 (Santa Clara)
  • GHC of Women in Computing: September 20-23 (Orlando)

October

  • FORTUNE Most Powerful Women: October 10-12 (Laguna Niguel)
  • CB Insights Future of Fintech: October TBD (New York)
  • Mobile World Congress Los Angeles: October TBD (Los Angeles)
  • Programmatic I/O: October 17-18 (New York)
  • TechCrunch Disrupt: October 18-20 (San Francisco)
  • Money 20/20: October 23-26 (Las Vegas)

Investor

May

  • Oppenheimer Emerging Growth Conference: May 10 (Virtual)
  • JPMorgan Global TMT Conference: May 23-25 (Boston)
  • RBC Datacenter, Cloud & Broadband Infra Conference: May 24 (San Francisco)

June

  • Cowen TMT Conference: June 1-2 (New York)
  • Jefferies Software Conference: June 1-2 (San Francisco)
  • William Blair Growth Stock Conference: June 6-9 (Chicago)
  • Baird Global Consumer, Technology & Services Conference: June 6-8 (New York)
  • Bank of America Global Technology Conference: June 7-9 (San Francisco/Hybrid)
  • Stifel Cross Sector Insight Conference: June 7-9 (Boston)
  • Credit Suisse Fintech Conference: June 9-10 (Napa)
  • RBC Financial Technology Conference: June 14 (New York)
  • Oppenheimer Consumer Growth & E-Commerce Conference: June 14-15 (Virtual)
  • Credit Suisse Mobility Forum: June 21 (Virtual)

August

  • KeyBank Technology Leadership Forum: August 7-9 (Vail)
  • Canaccord Genuity Growth Conference: August 8-11 (Boston)

September

  • Citi Global Technology Conference: September 7-9 (New York)
  • Goldman Sachs Communacopia Conference: September 12-15 (New York)
  • Piper Tech & Consumer Growth Frontiers Conference: September 13-14 (Nashville)
  • Deutsche Bank Technology Conference: September 13-14 (Las Vegas)

November

  • Credit Suisse TMT Conference: November 28-December 1 (Phoenix)

December

  • Raymond James Technology Investors Conference: December 5-7 (New York)

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The Market Monitor: April 2022 October 29th, 2022denisehayflowerllc
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